RE: Next Korean War?

["Maxwell David LTC 1/1 SFG(A)(n)" <MaxwellD@torii.army.mil>]

I do think the nK scenario is very plausible.  I just thought the US side of
the story (strategically) was implausible though tactically very well done
and a good read.  

As a planner in Korea for the last 4 years I need to be careful about mixing
my personal opinions with the assessments I have read so I must refrain from
commenting too much on what I think will happen.  One thing I think we
should all be clear about (given the current talks/summit):  nK's vital
national interest (survival of the Kim Family regime) has not changed, and
their main strategic objective (reunification of the peninsula under KFR
control) has not changed.  If faced with a threat to his regime Kim Jong Il
may very initiate his campaign plan to reunify the peninsula.  Furthermore,
a successor to Kim could do the same.  A coup at this time is difficult to
foresee due to the inability to establish alliances within nK though a "Mr
X" assassination is not implausible.  With no succession mechanism, a power
vacuum will occur and a  potential successor could implement the campaign
plan as a way to gain control.

Dave

> -----Original Message-----
> From:	Peters809@aol.com [SMTP:Peters809@aol.com]
> Sent:	Wednesday, August 02, 2000 13:06
> To:	KOREAN-WAR-L@raven.cc.ukans.edu
> Subject:	Re: Next Korean War?
> 
> Dave,
> 
> I didn't see it that way, but I appreciate your view.  
> 
> It appears to me that in Proud Legions, the NKs were desperate and a coup 
> changed the usual conservative NK approach.  When the new leader attacked
> he 
> used all the NKs had--air, special forces, artillery, infantry etc.  
> 
> As the true representatives of the Hermit Kingdom, they miscalculated.
> Even 
> their ace in the hole, their Russian bought atomic artillery shells,
> didn't 
> make up for their miscalculations.
> 
> Again, it seemed plausible to me--from the commando attack on the US
> embassy 
> and key airfields to the one-shot air attack by the NKAF.  I think that
> the 
> book was intended to be seen from the perspective of one battalion, and so
> 
> the story concentrated on that battalion.  The twist at the end was mere 
> literary license.  
> 
> How do you think the NKs would attack if they wanted to win quickly?
> 
> Thanks!  I enjoy the discussion.
> 
> George