Re: KW (Taiwan) invasion

[<geminiad@whidbey.com>]

Jhk789@aol.com wrote:
> > 
> In regard to the U.S. prediction of
> Mao's attack on Taiwan, there was, in fact,
> one report from a US official based
> in Taiwan. He was Robert Strong, US Charge,
> who cabled to the State Dept on May 17
> as follows:

 "Fate of Taiwan sealed, communist
> attack can occur bet. June 15 and end July."
> The same official also reported in late April that
> "desperate measures may be attempted by
> Nationalist Government to involve US in a
> shooting war as a means of saving its own skin."

 Yes, had read this but still without Chinese documents
 and plans, if ever drawn up in Beijing (which I am sure were 
prepared by Third  Field Army ).

Familiar with Cumings, Vol II Ch. 16 and in ref  "invasion
date", suspect Guy Burgess quote of CIA estimate that 
either "May-June" or "September-October" would in all
practicality have been August-September 1950, a PLA Third 
Field Army's choice. 

Cuming comment on page 527 regarding the "defeated" morale
situation on Taiwan after loss of Hainan Island in late-April 1950
was very real, and CCP Third Field Army's success would have
come rather easily had it been done in Aug-Sept., and
had the Korean War not intervened in the Chinese Civil War. 

Interesting that even the British protested the unofficial plan
to deliver "25 tanks and 25 F-80"  (Shooting Star)  jet fighters to
Taiwan, for fear that they would fall into Communist hands;

plus, Cumings commentary on growing demise of CAT
(bankrupsy) and efforts to withdraw some of their aircraft from
the island for fear of them falling captive.  


It might be "revisionist" thinking to consider what a more sane
military environment the world would have in Asia today had 
not Kim Il-sung upset a likely takeover of Taiwan in mid-1950.
A  U.S.-China rapproachment would like have come in mi-1950s
instead of late-1970s,  certainly in response with Mao's problems
with Moscow  (well enroute by 1958 and speeding train in 1960).  

> So, it seems there were two dictators--Chiang & Rhee--
> who were more desperate than Kim Il-Sung to start
> a general war at that time. YES !
> 
> BTW, was there a US ambassador in Taiwan at the time?

U.S. moved ambassador out of Nanking in late-1949
and resettled on Taiwan.  We had ambassadors till 1979. 

U.S. normalization of relations with China came March 1, 1979
in Beijing ceremonies, in which Leonard Woodcock, former
head of the U.S. Liaison Mission in Beijing since march 1977,
was appointed first US ambassador to PRC.

> Was Strong the head of US mission there?  No.
 Strong was Charge d'Affairs on the island, from late-April 1950.
However, not tried to match ambassador names with where-abouts
(there was alot of movement back and forth to Washington and elsewhere
by State officials at this time) at this particular period of									
April thru summer 1950. ( Might do someday).  

Full list of Ambassadors can be had through FRUS documents
or State Department. 
> 
> John