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Re: Fwd: North Korea - Miscalculation
An interesting article, but the north Koreans have
little to worry about. The US is certainly not going
to employ the strategy and tactics used in Afghanistan
against the DPRK. The US was able to employ its
awesome precision airpower against the Taliban because
the Taliban and Al Queda had no way of striking back
against the US forces except perhaps, terrorism.
That is not the case in north Korea. The nK's have a
highly developed air defense system that would pose a
real threat to our aircrews. More disturbing is their
artillery. Most of the US 2nd Infantry Division is
within artillery range of the NKPA, some of the camps
are even within mortar range. All they have to do to
retaliate against US airstrikes is fire their 122mm,
130mm and 152mm artillery at the camps with their
large barracks full of US troops and they will cause
hundreds, perhaps thousands of casualties. Even worse
is the case of the main US HQ in Seoul which is within
range of the 170mm Koksan gun and 240mm rockets. In
addition to military facilities it has daycare
centers, an elementary school, a high school, family
quarters, etc. I doubt that the nK's will be
concerned about collateral damage if they aim thier
rockets at the battle simulation center troop barracks
and hit the elementary school across the street
instead.
For years the US troops north of Seoul have served as
a tripwire against a nK attack, but now ironically
they now tie our hands by being so far forward. Any
option that includes Afghanistan-like precision
airstrikes would have to be weighed against the risk
to US troops posed by nK artillery. Not to mention
the risk to our allies allies who have probably got
about 12 divisions within artillery range of the nK's
as well as a significant portion of their civilian
population.
Mike Davino
tactics
--- DasHaas@aol.com wrote:
> In a message dated 12/7/2001 4:27:05 PM Pacific
> Standard Time,
> alert@stratfor.com writes:
>
>
> > N. Korea's Old Tactics May Backfire Post-Sept. 11
> >
> > Summary
> >
> > North Korea is again raising its level of
> anti-U.S. rhetoric and
> > has warned that it will continue to develop and
> build new and
> > better missiles. With relations with South Korea
> bogged down due
> > to both internal politics in Seoul and a policy
> shift in
> > Washington, Pyongyang is returning to its
> tried-and-true
> > diplomatic strategy of threat and conciliation.
> North Korea's
> > leaders, however, may be miscalculating the
> changes in
> > Washington's priorities post-Sept. 11.
> >
> > Analysis
> >
> > While reports circulate of potential action
> against North Korea,
> > as part of the U.S. anti-terrorism campaign,
> Pyongyang has warned
> > Washington not to give it the same treatment it
> gave Afghanistan.
> > A commentary in the official Rodong Sinmun Dec. 5
> said, "If the
> > U.S. imperialists try to test their logic of
> strength on the
> > DPRK, as they are using it against some countries,
> they will be
> > annihilated to the last man." The warning comes
> amid a renewed
> > flood of anti-U.S. rhetoric coming out of North
> Korea, where the
> > government is suggesting it will continue to
> develop and deploy
> > new and better missiles.
> >
> > Faced with a sustained slowdown in inter-Korean
> reconciliation,
> > Pyongyang is returning to its usual diplomatic
> tactics:
> > alternately slinging threats and dropping hints
> about renewed
> > talks with the United States. But Pyongyang may be
> miscalculating
> > Washington's priorities and tolerances in the
> post-Sept. 11
> > world, and this could only further complicate its
> international
> > relations.
> >
> > North Korea's nuclear and biological weapons
> programs have been
> > under increased scrutiny since Sept. 11. Pyongyang
> is actually
> > hoping to benefit from this renewed attention by
> using it to
> > restart talks with the United States and South
> Korea and gain the
> > upper hand at the bargaining table.
> >
> > However, for South Korean President Kim Dae Jung,
> already
> > weakened by party politics and term limits,
> Pyongyang's
> > belligerent tone does little to spur his flagging
> Sunshine Policy
> > of strategic engagement with the North. It may
> also embolden
> > elements in Washington already predisposed against
> further aid or
> > concessions to the North Korean regime.
> >
> > External Pressure
> >
> > Washington and its close allies have accused North
> Korea over the
> > past few weeks of selling long-range missiles to
> Egypt,
> > possessing nuclear weapons and producing large
> stockpiles of
> > biological weapons. U.S. President George W. Bush
> bluntly told
> > Pyongyang to allow international inspection of its
> nuclear
> > facilities and to stop selling missiles. Bush
> linked ending
> > missile proliferation and programs to build
> weapons of mass
> > destruction to the war on terror, raising
> speculation that North
> > Korea was on his short list of targets after
> Afghanistan.
> >
> > At the same time, pressure is also building
> against the regime
> > from other quarters. Japanese officials Nov. 28
> raided the
> > offices of the General Association of Korean
> Residents in Japan
> > (Chongryun), a pro-Pyongyang group that funnels
> money from credit
> > unions and other sources to North Korea. In South
> Korea the
> > highly touted Mount Kumkang tourism project, the
> first to
> > schedule regular trips for South Koreans to the
> North, is near
> > collapse despite government intervention.
> >
> > Furthermore, the delay in inter-Korean
> reconciliation since the
> > beginning of the year has left many of South
> Korea's biggest
> > businesses reconsidering their planned investments
> in the North,
> > according to the online NK Chosun. South Korean
> firms were owed
> > nearly $14.3 million by North Korea as of the end
> of November,
> > according to the South Korean Unification
> Ministry.
> >
> > Belligerence or Reconciliation
> >
> > Pyongyang has made several provocative moves in
> recent weeks.
> > North Korean border guards on Nov. 27 fired three
> shots across
> > the DMZ, the highly militarized border that
> separates North and
> > South Korea. The shooting incident, the first in
> more than three
> > years along the border, triggered a brief return
> of fire by South
> > Korean troops. A preliminary investigation
> determined the North
> > Korean shots were fired from a 7.62 mm machine
> gun, banned from
> > use in the area by the armistice agreement that
> ended the Korean
> > War, according to a release by South Korea's Joint
> Chiefs of
> > Staff.
> >
> > South Korean officials Nov. 27 also revealed that
> Pyongyang
> > requested that the members of the U.N. Military
> Armistice
> > Commission withdraw from the body, which is tasked
> with resolving
> > violations of the armistice agreement. Pyongyang
> has tried
> > several times to dissolve the commission but
> stopped such
> > attempts during the period of inter-Korean contact
> in 2000.
> >
> > Pyongyang's new demand is an attempt to spur
> direct peace
> > negotiations with Washington. If there is no
> committee to oversee
> > the armistice agreement, the United States will
> have little
> > choice but to resume talks with North Korea.
> >
> > North Korea has also renewed a rhetorical battle
> against the
> > United States and South Korea. Through official
> media outlets,
> > Pyongyang has accused Washington of taking
> advantage of Sept. 11
> > to try to threaten the regime. The government also
> responded to
> > these so-called U.S. threats by saying it will
> rely on its strong
> > leader, step up military readiness, and prepare
> and develop
> > missiles to "smash the imperialists' moves to
> stifle the DPRK."
> >
> > Yet amid the rhetoric and provocative actions,
> Pyongyang has
> > still taken several steps to encourage a
> resumption of dialogue
> > with the United States. North Korea's foreign
> minister told a
> > visiting Western diplomat in October that
> Pyongyang had expelled
> > members of the Japanese Red Army, who for decades
> took refuge in
>
=== message truncated ===
> ATTACHMENT part 2 message/rfc822
> Date: Fri, 7 Dec 2001 18:06:42 -0600 (CST)
> From: <alert@stratfor.com>
> To: members@stratfor.com
> Subject: North Korea - Miscalculation
>
>
___________________________________________________________________
>
>
> S T R A T F O R
>
> THE GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE COMPANY
>
> http://www.stratfor.com
>
___________________________________________________________________
>
> 07 December 2001
>
> THE GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE REPORT - FULL TEXT FOR
> MEMBERS ONLY
>
> -> ON OUR WEBSITE TODAY FOR MEMBERS ONLY:
>
> * N. Korea's Old Tactics May Backfire
> Post-Sept. 11
>
>
http://www.stratfor.com/asia/commentary/0112072100.htm
>
> * Fast-Track Authority Would Boost U.S.
> Security Agenda
>
>
http://www.stratfor.com/northamerica/commentary/0112072230.htm
>
> * Indonesia: Rais' Futile Bid for Power
>
>
http://www.stratfor.com/asia/commentary/0112072350.htm
>
>
___________________________________________________________________
>
> N. Korea's Old Tactics May Backfire Post-Sept. 11
>
> Summary
>
> North Korea is again raising its level of anti-U.S.
> rhetoric and
> has warned that it will continue to develop and
> build new and
> better missiles. With relations with South Korea
> bogged down due
> to both internal politics in Seoul and a policy
> shift in
> Washington, Pyongyang is returning to its
> tried-and-true
> diplomatic strategy of threat and conciliation.
> North Korea's
> leaders, however, may be miscalculating the changes
> in
> Washington's priorities post-Sept. 11.
>
> Analysis
>
> While reports circulate of potential action against
> North Korea,
> as part of the U.S. anti-terrorism campaign,
> Pyongyang has warned
> Washington not to give it the same treatment it gave
> Afghanistan.
> A commentary in the official Rodong Sinmun Dec. 5
> said, "If the
> U.S. imperialists try to test their logic of
> strength on the
> DPRK, as they are using it against some countries,
> they will be
> annihilated to the last man." The warning comes amid
> a renewed
> flood of anti-U.S. rhetoric coming out of North
> Korea, where the
> government is suggesting it will continue to develop
> and deploy
> new and better missiles.
>
> Faced with a sustained slowdown in inter-Korean
> reconciliation,
> Pyongyang is returning to its usual diplomatic
> tactics:
> alternately slinging threats and dropping hints
> about renewed
> talks with the United States. But Pyongyang may be
> miscalculating
> Washington's priorities and tolerances in the
> post-Sept. 11
> world, and this could only further complicate its
> international
> relations.
>
> North Korea's nuclear and biological weapons
> programs have been
> under increased scrutiny since Sept. 11. Pyongyang
> is actually
> hoping to benefit from this renewed attention by
> using it to
> restart talks with the United States and South Korea
> and gain the
> upper hand at the bargaining table.
>
> However, for South Korean President Kim Dae Jung,
> already
> weakened by party politics and term limits,
> Pyongyang's
> belligerent tone does little to spur his flagging
> Sunshine Policy
> of strategic engagement with the North. It may also
> embolden
> elements in Washington already predisposed against
> further aid or
> concessions to the North Korean regime.
>
> External Pressure
>
> Washington and its close allies have accused North
> Korea over the
> past few weeks of selling long-range missiles to
> Egypt,
> possessing nuclear weapons and producing large
> stockpiles of
> biological weapons. U.S. President George W. Bush
> bluntly told
> Pyongyang to allow international inspection of its
> nuclear
> facilities and to stop selling missiles. Bush linked
> ending
> missile proliferation and programs to build weapons
> of mass
> destruction to the war on terror, raising
> speculation that North
> Korea was on his short list of targets after
> Afghanistan.
>
> At the same time, pressure is also building against
> the regime
> from other quarters. Japanese officials Nov. 28
> raided the
> offices of the General Association of Korean
> Residents in Japan
> (Chongryun), a pro-Pyongyang group that funnels
> money from credit
> unions and other sources to North Korea. In South
> Korea the
> highly touted Mount Kumkang tourism project, the
> first to
> schedule regular trips for South Koreans to the
> North, is near
> collapse despite government intervention.
>
> Furthermore, the delay in inter-Korean
> reconciliation since the
> beginning of the year has left many of South Korea's
> biggest
> businesses reconsidering their planned investments
> in the North,
> according to the online NK Chosun. South Korean
> firms were owed
> nearly $14.3 million by North Korea as of the end of
> November,
> according to the South Korean Unification Ministry.
>
> Belligerence or Reconciliation
>
> Pyongyang has made several provocative moves in
> recent weeks.
> North Korean border guards on Nov. 27 fired three
> shots across
> the DMZ, the highly militarized border that
> separates North and
> South Korea. The shooting incident, the first in
> more than three
> years along the border, triggered a brief return of
> fire by South
> Korean troops. A preliminary investigation
> determined the North
> Korean shots were fired from a 7.62 mm machine gun,
> banned from
> use in the area by the armistice agreement that
> ended the Korean
> War, according to a release by South Korea's Joint
> Chiefs of
> Staff.
>
> South Korean officials Nov. 27 also revealed that
> Pyongyang
> requested that the members of the U.N. Military
> Armistice
> Commission withdraw from the body, which is tasked
> with resolving
> violations of the armistice agreement. Pyongyang has
> tried
> several times to dissolve the commission but stopped
> such
> attempts during the period of inter-Korean contact
> in 2000.
>
> Pyongyang's new demand is an attempt to spur direct
> peace
> negotiations with Washington. If there is no
> committee to oversee
> the armistice agreement, the United States will have
> little
>
=== message truncated ===
__________________________________________________
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