Re: North Korea - Miscalculation

[<DasHaas@aol.com>]

In a message dated 12/8/2001 10:03:18 AM Pacific Standard Time, LACarr@aol.com writes:


> I have a feeling our power is so massive that we would overcome their defense


  Maury!

       I confess that until 1985 I--then an active duty USAF Major--shared your guess  that if the NKs came across the DMZ again we'd stomp the snot out of them.  Then the USAF sent me off to Intell School and we used real-world classified data for our paper staff exercises; data on North Korea.

       I graduated from the school a lot less confident of our capabilities against NK than when I went in.  A high-tech military like ours is always at its best against a similar opponent.  And, as we saw in SEA and in particular our failed efforts to choke off the Ho Chi Minh Trail, at our worst against low-tech opponents.  In a lot of critical aspects, NK features low-tech (because they really don't have the money for high-tech) threats that can pose a real problem for the US military.  And hard as it is for me to believe the quality is there, they really do have--at last count--nearly 100,000 special forces soldiers.  I've come to believe that at least in terms of toughness and tactical prowess, most of these 100,000 are dangerous guys.  And don't forget, all they really have to do--beyond taking the political heat--is take our airfields for a few weeks or perhaps even for only a few days; not even occupy them, just stop traffic in/out.

       Don't want to try war-gaming the whole point here.  Just trying to say that we might be unpleasantly surprised to have our hands full if they did come across the DMZ.  The dummies really should have done it during the Clinton years, when there was a good chance we would have abandoned the SKs.  Joe Bermudez is the real expert here.  Maybe he'll weigh in to stir the pot:-)

Col. Mike Haas, USAF, ret., author
Apollo's Warriors:  US Air Force Special Operations during the Cold War
In the Devil's Shadow:  UN Special Operations during the Korean War