Re: Fwd: North Korea - Miscalculation

[James Robert Dennis III <jrdennis@earthlink.net>]

The North Koreans do not have the skill that they once had with Kim Il 
Sung.  Kim Jong Il has not shown the political pragmatism that his father 
had.  

I would worry about the North Koreans getting pressed against the wall.  
I remember a war game played at Ft. Leavenworth (Warfighter) where the 
OPFOR was allowed to use NK Tactics and Doctrine, the results were not 
pretty from a ROK/US point of view.  They stopped that wargame in 1 hour 
and restarted 6 hours later with a lot of restrictions against the OPFOR. 

While the North Korean Air Force is composed mostly of obsolete aircraft, 
they still have enough punch in a first strike to make our eyes water, 
especially if they hit the helicopter airfields and the MLRS battalions.  
MiG 15's with 5 inch rockets would be more than suitable for this, 
especially if they are still in the Camps.

There are too many people that think everyone will sit still and get 
bombed for 30 or so days, ala Iraq did.  To think this is as stupid as 
someone who actually lets it happen.

Now as far as 2d Infantry Division goes, it sure sounds macho and one can 
really thump one's chest when you state that you are within Artillery 
Range.   Well it just isn't true.  Most of the Hardened Artillery Sites 
aren't in the area where they can hit 2d ID (Camp Casey).  If the NKs 
were to bring up the D-74s (122mm guns) the 130mm or even the Kokson 
guns, the mountains to the north west of Camp Casey would provide a 
shield.  (long range fires require low trajectories).  Additionally the 
place where people show where the "guns could be" isn't suitable for 
artillery (very steep slopes) and the direction of the mountains make the 
orientation of HARTS (where you could fire out of them) not suitable. 

At Camp Howze, in the Western Corridor back when 2d ID had a brigade out 
there, it was out of Artillery Range as was Camp Garry Owen.  The 
Battalion across the Imjin (1-9 Infantry back then and the Artilley 
Battalion at Camp Pelham were with in range of the Artillery but the 
120mm mortars of the DMZ police and the front line units were too far 
back to hit them.  Now if the NKs moved them just prior to hostilities 
that would have been a different story.  Now of course the JSA HQ (Kitty 
Hawk) was within 120mm Mortar range.  

Going after Western Seoul would be interesting again because of the 
directon of the mountains.  I don't think we would see Koksan guns used.  
The Rocket Artillery can certainly hit Seoul.  Seoul gets closer to the 
DMZ everyday, in 20 years Seoul may be within Mortar Range (less than 6 
kms).   

Was I worried about NK artillery in '83-84, yes.  Towards the end of the 
Korean fighting, the Chinese were able to fire approximately 100,000 
rounds per day against us and the number of rounds per day was 
increasing.  A 100,000 round day would be a light day in a current war 
(until the NK had to advance their guns).  

The problem is can the NK's deliver a knock out punch before we can send 
in reinforcements?  They don't have to take Seoul, all they have to do is 
recover the 38th Parallel and hold it until they can get talks started 
again.  The current ROK government would fall and we could see a military 
coup to keep a "reunification" under less than favorable conditions from 
taking place.  Additionally the ROK Army would have had the stuffing 
stomped out of it and it would take years to recover from that.  ROK 
Reserve Divisions don't have the heavy artillery and tanks that a Regular 
Division has.  




>An interesting article, but the north Koreans have
>little to worry about.  The US is certainly not going
>to employ the strategy and tactics used in Afghanistan
>against the DPRK.  The US was able to employ its
>awesome precision airpower against the Taliban because
>the Taliban and Al Queda had no way of striking back
>against the US forces except perhaps, terrorism.  
>
>That is not the case in north Korea.  The nK's have a
>highly developed air defense system that would pose a
>real threat to our aircrews.  More disturbing is their
>artillery.  Most of the US 2nd Infantry Division is
>within artillery range of the NKPA, some of the camps
>are even within mortar range.  All they have to do to
>retaliate against US airstrikes is fire their 122mm,
>130mm and 152mm artillery at the camps with their
>large barracks full of US troops and they will cause
>hundreds, perhaps thousands of casualties.  Even worse
>is the case of the main US HQ in Seoul which is within
>range of the 170mm Koksan gun and 240mm rockets.  In
>addition to military facilities it has daycare
>centers, an elementary school, a high school, family
>quarters, etc.  I doubt that the nK's will be
>concerned about collateral damage if they aim thier
>rockets at the battle simulation center troop barracks
>and hit the elementary school across the street
>instead.   
>
>For years the US troops north of Seoul have served as
>a tripwire against a nK attack, but now ironically
>they now tie our hands by being so far forward.  Any
>option that includes Afghanistan-like precision
>airstrikes would have to be weighed against the risk
>to US troops posed by nK artillery.  Not to mention
>the risk to our allies allies who have probably got
>about 12 divisions within artillery range of the nK's
>as well as a significant portion of their civilian
>population.
>
>Mike Davino
>
>
>