Re: North Korea - Miscalculation

[James Robert Dennis III <jrdennis@earthlink.net>]

>
>James Robert Dennis III wrote:
>
><<The North Koreans do not have the skill that they once had with Kim Il
>Sung.  Kim Jong Il has not shown the political pragmatism that his father
>had...>>
>
>I have to disagree with this.  North Korea has shown far more flexibility
>under Kim Jr. than under his father, although that admittedly is probably
>more a product of desperation--economic collapse and the loss of the Soviet
>Union and China as reliable allies--than of Kim Jr.'s innate intelligence or
>pragmatism.  Kim has played his weak hand pretty well, in the nuclear
>agreement and in his dealings with the South.  It would have been
>unthinkable
>in his father's era for a ROK President to visit Pyongyang.
>
>     Keith Allen
>
I think the "unthinkability" of a ROK President visiting Pyongyang as
other than a conqueror is more based on the current ROK President, not
the current DPRK President.  The ROK Kim was trying his best to cause a
unification of the Koreans within his administration and that has been
frustrated by many different things.

Rhee, Park, Chun or Roh, visiting Kim Il Sung, (LOL!).

Kim Il Sung survived as turbulent as times as his son is currently going
through. He survived the de-Stalinization of the USSR (an unreliable
ally) and the several incarnations of Mao and his policies (another
unreliable ally) and so on.  The only advantage the NK had in the 50s and
60s was the steel mills the Soviets gave them.  They produced and sold
steel around the world until the Japanese introduced and exported cheaper
steel.  It wiped out the demand for NK (and US) Steel.  The Oil Embargo
of 1974 and the rise of oil prices took the NK economy to the floor.  The
only advantage they had was an alternate producer of Soviet Arms (FROGs,
SCUDs, SA-2s and SAGGER Missiles) to Egypt, Syria and Libya and
eventually to Iran.  When the Chinese saw they could sell stuff on the
market they cut the NKs throat and undersold them.

A lot of people think that NK is a dictatorship controlled by one man,
this has never been the case.  Through it's short history, both of the
Kims have had to deal with numerous factions and interest groups within
NK.  While they could eliminate real opposition (like the pro-Chinese
faction in the late 50s), but they were very good working with groups and
in the elder's case making drastic changes in policy based on current
activities.