CIA Korean War failure

["Mike Yared" <mike_yared@hotmail.com>]

http://www.washtimes.com/national/ (Inside the Ring column)
CIA China failure
     The CIA released an embarrassing report this week in its in-house 
journal showing, once again, how CIA analyses of China are not only flawed 
today but were wrong in several aspects during the Korean War.
     We reported recently that a panel of outside experts had found an 
"institutional predisposition" by CIA hands in China to underestimate 
Chinese military developments. The CIA rejected the criticism.
      Now CIA operations officer P.K. Rose, writing in the current issue of 
the CIA journal "Studies in Intelligence," has exposed a major CIA failure 
during the Korean War to predict Chinese intervention in the conflict, which 
he described as a "blunder" that proved to be deadly for U.S. troops.
     Throughout China's military buildup on the North Korean border, the CIA 
refused to believe intervention would take place. On Oct. 12, 1950, CIA 
Office of Records and Estimates Paper 58-50 stated: "While full-scale 
Chinese Communist intervention in Korea must be regarded as a continuing 
possibility, a consideration of all known factors leads to the conclusion 
that barring a Soviet decision for global war, such action is not probable 
in 1950."
     In the weeks leading up to the Chinese invasion, "numerous intelligence 
reports indicated Chinese preparations for military intervention," the 
author stated.
     When Chinese military forces began moving into North Korea on Oct. 13 
and 14, 1950, the CIA still refused to believe an invasion was imminent. On 
Oct. 15, the CIA's Daily Summary stated that "China had no intention of 
entering the war in any large-scale fashion," and agency analysts also 
adopted the conclusion that the troops were there "to protect the 
hydroelectric plants along the Yalu River that provide power to the 
Manchurian industrial area."
     Astonishingly, even after the massive Chinese assault was launched, the 
CIA refused to believe the 498,000 Chinese regular army troops and an 
additional 370,000 security troops were part of an invasion.
     As U.S. military intelligence from the region reported 12 Chinese 
divisions in Korea, "On 24 November, however, National Intelligence Estimate 
2/1 stated that China had the capability for large-scale offensive 
operations but that there were no indications such an offensive was in the 
offing," the article said.
     "That same day, the second Chinese offensive started, leaving the 8th 
Army fighting for its life and most of the 1st Marine Division surrounded 
and threatened with annihilation," the article said.

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