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Re: revising air war kill tallies



Cookie,
 
Russian authors have picked up on and amplified single statements probably made in some US books for example 1) only planes that crashed in NK were counted as lost 2) the US later re-evaluated losses upward in stages so what's the next stage? 3) US didn't count damaged written off planes. But I don't think any of those three can be shown to be true in reality.
 
1) if one counts all the losses individually, in a source like Korwald say, including all that clearly should be counted (eg. "damaged over NK by MiG's, pilot bailed out over SK") the total adds up to about what the USAF said right after the war (1953 Statistical Digest, source for Futrell's numbers). So there's simply no indication of cheating of the level of "oh that one didn't crash in NK so it doesn't count". Except a relatively small number of B-29's, related to 3).
 
2) just not so. Every correct accounting USAF has ever given AFAIK is essentially consistent with '53 Statistical Digest tables. 58 Sabres lost is often quoted, but I believe that's just a mistake. The 78 in my edition of Futrell is from the Stat Digest and is consistent with Korwald and the tables in Thompson/MacLaren book (more or less, some mysteried remain). The statement often made that the Sabre Measures Charlie study said 103 F-86's were lost in air combat is simply not so: the column totalling to 103 in that report is labelled "blue losses" and the monthly losses correspond to the total losses for *all* fighter types (incl F-51) in the '53 Stat Digest table for each month.
 
3) Aircraft damaged beyond repair seem to generally be included in the 53 Stat Digest numbers. The possible exception is B-29's but not a large number and it does not apply to other types to any large degree. For example the 30 or so F-86's listed in Korwald "damaged" (in addition to 80 or so air-air losses) can almost all be shown to have been repaired and flown later.
 
Any really statisticially signficant cheating would have to be IMO on the issue of calling air combat losses something else completely. Here an example is the period Nov 1950-May 20 1951. Diego came up with IIRC 32 US air combat losses for this period in a paper he wrote that was on ACIG site. The seeming rule was almost all AAA or mechanical losses were counted as MiG losses if there were otherwised unfulfilled MiG claims the same day, plus he added a few completely "hidden losses" when he felt Soviet documentation was strong. Korwald totals 16 losses counting logically, the official total is not clear for the period, probably 17 or 18 (prob incl an F-51 loss definitely not, I found, to MiG's and Shirlaw's F-86 4/51 code M and probably counted in the 78 though unlikely to be due to MiGs). I got 20 initially, 19 best guess after more review of primary records. There's only one case of a non-MiG loss where attributing to MiG's seems possible based on time place, circumstance and lack of other US units' combats at the time and place mentioned by the Russians, less than 50-50 on further review though I still included it. This doesn't prove anything about the whole war, just leads me to doubt that the number of such misattributions is statistically signficant. Russian claims in the period btw were 152 by my count.
 
I completely agree the Russian wreck accounting is not reliable enough to establish new losses missing from  US records, and don't see logically how such it could generally prove an airplane was downed by one cause rather than another even if reliable. For example one case debated here long ago was the supposed Soviet turkey shoot of F-84's plus a few F-86's 9/9/52. As mentioned then the tail numbers in Soviet records for 9 supposed F-84 wrecks mostly don't correspond to any F-84 and the I since tracked down that the ones that do are of F-84's provably in existence after the war. Strangely the tail numbers of the 3 F-84's actually shot down are not given. More recently I also learned that machine gun serial numbers given as proof of an F-86 downing that day are those of guns fitted to one of the 3 F-84's.
 
Joe
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Sunday, November 16, 2003 5:19 PM
Subject: Re: revising air war kill tallies

Joe,
 
I think the big problem is the fact that at least one of the US authors indicated that aircraft lost in combat were not counted as combat losses if they did not crash in the immediate vicinity of the mission or combat area. There are a number of losses which were ditched in off either coast of North Korea which were lost under suspect conditions.
 
The B-29 crews argue about a number of damaged aircraft written off as flak damage when the crews claimed it was "horizontal flak" from MiG cannon and not ground gunners.
 
Big problem is how much of this is anecdotal and how much is actual serious after-action reporting. We've gone over some of them in the past, but the problem still remains which aircraft were lost for what reasons.
 
One thing which IS obvious from reading the details from autobiographies of guys like Abukumov is that a lot of the claims were validated by who got to the crash site first, and in many cases it seems to be VVS pilots and not the PVO gunners. Ergo, an aircraft shot down as an F-86 is claimed due to a smoking hole in the ground, which mysteriously matches up with an F-84 shot down by flak.
 
But when there is R500 bonus at stake, hey, money talks...
 
Cookie Sewell
AMPS